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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">mgssuvest</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Вестник МГСУ</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Vestnik MGSU</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1997-0935</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2304-6600</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Moscow State University of Civil Engineering (National Research University) (MGSU)</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22227/1997-0935.2023.8.1283-1297</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">mgssuvest-21</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>Технология и организация строительства. Экономика и управление в строительстве</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>Technology and organization of construction. Economics and management in construction</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Метод прогнозирования эффективности реализации инвестиционно-строительных проектов в особой экономической зоне на различных этапах жизненного цикла</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Method of forecasting the efficiency of investment and construction projects realization in a special economic zone at different stages of life cycle</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5851-7040</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Искандаров</surname><given-names>Д. З.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Iskandarov</surname><given-names>D. Z.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Далер Зарифович Искандаров — аспирант кафедры менеджмента и инноваций</p><p>129337, г. Москва, Ярославское шоссе, д. 26</p><p>РИНЦ ID: 1101400, Scopus: 57224202746, ResearcherID: AAC-5811-2022</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Daler Z. Iskandarov — postgraduate student of the Department of Management and Innovation</p><p>26 Yaroslavskoe shosse, Moscow, 129337</p><p>ID RSCI: 1101400, Scopus: 57224202746, ResearcherID: AAC-5811-2022</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">iskandarovdaler@gmail.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7198-4655</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Бороздина</surname><given-names>С. М.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Borozdina</surname><given-names>S. M.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Светлана Михайловна Бороздина — кандидат экономических наук, доцент кафедры менеджмента и инноваций</p><p>129337, г. Москва, Ярославское шоссе, д. 26</p><p>РИНЦ ID: 654497, Scopus: 57194450904, ResearcherID: AAM-6451-2020</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Svetlana M. Borozdina — Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Associate Professor of the Department of Management and Innovation</p><p>26 Yaroslavskoe shosse, Moscow, 129337</p><p>ID RSCI: 654497, Scopus: 57194450904, ResearcherID: AAM-6451-2020</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">svet_g88@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Национальный исследовательский Московский государственный строительный университет (НИУ МГСУ)</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Moscow State University of Civil Engineering (National Research University) (MGSU)</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2023</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>30</day><month>08</month><year>2023</year></pub-date><volume>18</volume><issue>8</issue><fpage>1283</fpage><lpage>1297</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Искандаров Д.З., Бороздина С.М., 2023</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2023</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Искандаров Д.З., Бороздина С.М.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Iskandarov D.Z., Borozdina S.M.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.vestnikmgsu.ru/jour/article/view/21">https://www.vestnikmgsu.ru/jour/article/view/21</self-uri><abstract><sec><title>Введение</title><p>Введение. Возможности использования особых экономических зон (ОЭЗ) в аспекте повышения объемов осуществляемых строительных работ и количества возведенных объектов недвижимости различного типа обусловлены ростом учреждения ОЭЗ, на которые возлагают значительные ожидания по решению ряда задач и вызовов, существующих в строительной отрасли. Проблемы диспропорции факторов производства на территории страны закладывают негативные последствия неверно принятых решений по формированию устойчивого социально-экономического развития регионов, что приводит к дифференциации в размещении объектов инфраструктуры и возникновению дисбаланса в трудовых высококвалифицированных кадрах. Авторы исследования полагают, что необходимым условием решения данных проблем является создание предпосылок и условий по реализации инвестиционно-строительных проектов (ИСП), имеющих коренное значение для отрасли, сконцентрировав субъекты экономической деятельности на едином территориальном пространстве, применив для этого ОЭЗ.</p></sec><sec><title>Материалы и методы</title><p>Материалы и методы. Изложенный метод оценки строится на применении коэффициентов линейной и обратной пропорциональности, выражающих зависимость переменных величин при реализации ИСП в ОЭЗ на различных этапах его жизненного цикла. Ключевым методом, применяемым в рамках научного исследования, является построение графиков линейных и параболических функций, иллюстрирующих изменения величины затрат и степени влияния этапов проекта.</p></sec><sec><title>Результаты</title><p>Результаты. Обнаружены и описаны посредством коэффициентов линейной и обратной пропорциональности перспективы по созданию инструмента регулирования прибыльности и рентабельности проекта. Выявление точки пересечения затрат и влияния проекта открывает широкие перспективы по внедрению разработанной методики в девелоперскую деятельность предприятий инвестиционно-строительной сферы, придавая практическую ценность проведенной научной работы.</p></sec><sec><title>Выводы</title><p>Выводы. Разработанный метод оценки эффективности проекта предполагает раздельное применение инструментов расчета на каждом из его этапов, что связано с особенностью использования вышеупомянутых коэффициентов. Визуально-наглядное представление и простота применения метода в значительной степени упрощает его применение, что в особенности необходимо при проведении оперативной экспресс-оценки прибыльности проекта в обозримой перспективе.</p></sec></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Introduction</title><p>Introduction. The possibilities of using special economic zones (SEZ) in the aspect of increasing the volume of construction work performed and the number of erected real estate objects of various types are conditioned by the growth of SEZ establishment, which have significant expectations for solving several tasks and challenges existing in the construction industry. The problems of disproportion of production factors on the territory of the country lay down the negative consequences of incorrectly made decisions on the formation of sustainable socio-economic development of regions, which leads to differentiation in the location of infrastructure facilities and the emergence of imbalance in the labour of highly qualified personnel. The authors of the study believe that the necessary condition for solving these problems is the creation of prerequisites and conditions for the implementation of investment and construction projects (ICP) that have fundamental importance for the industry, concentrating economic entities in a single territorial space, applying SEZ for this purpose.</p></sec><sec><title>Materials and methods</title><p>Materials and methods. The described method of evaluation is based on application of linear and inverse proportionality coefficients, expressing the dependence of variables in the implementation of ICP in SEZ at different stages of its life cycle. The key method that used in framework of the scientific research is the construction of graphs of linear and parabolic functions illustrating changes in the amount of costs and the degree of influence of the project stages.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>Results. Perspectives on the creation of a tool to regulate the profitability of the project are discovered and described through linear and inverse proportionality coefficients. Identification of the intersection point of costs and influence of the project opens wide prospects for the implementation of the developed methodology in the development activities of the IСS enterprises, giving practical value to the conducted scientific work.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>Conclusions. The developed method of project efficiency assessment assumes separate application of calculation tools at each of its stages, which is connected with the peculiarity of using the above-mentioned coefficients. The visual presentation and ease application of the method greatly simplifies its application, which is especially necessary when carrying out an operational express assessment of the profitability of the project in the foreseeable future.</p></sec></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>предприятие инвестиционно-строительной сферы (ИСС)</kwd><kwd>инвестиционно-строительный проект (ИСП)</kwd><kwd>особая экономическая зона (ОЭЗ)</kwd><kwd>коэффициенты линейной и обратной пропорциональности</kwd><kwd>константы затрат и времени</kwd><kwd>уравнение прямой</kwd><kwd>угловой коэффициент</kwd><kwd>прогноз</kwd><kwd>эффективность</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>investment and construction enterprise (ICE)</kwd><kwd>investment and construction project (ICP)</kwd><kwd>special economic zone (SEZ)</kwd><kwd>linear and inverse proportionality coefficients</kwd><kwd>cost and time constants</kwd><kwd>straight line equation</kwd><kwd>angular coefficient</kwd><kwd>forecast</kwd><kwd>efficiency</kwd></kwd-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Бухарова М.М., Андреев А.Н., Бододько Р.Ф., Гуляева Д.А., Зверков В.И., Кравченко Е.И. и др. 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