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<article article-type="research-article" dtd-version="1.3" xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance" xml:lang="ru"><front><journal-meta><journal-id journal-id-type="publisher-id">mgssuvest</journal-id><journal-title-group><journal-title xml:lang="ru">Вестник МГСУ</journal-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Vestnik MGSU</trans-title></trans-title-group></journal-title-group><issn pub-type="ppub">1997-0935</issn><issn pub-type="epub">2304-6600</issn><publisher><publisher-name>Moscow State University of Civil Engineering (National Research University) (MGSU)</publisher-name></publisher></journal-meta><article-meta><article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.22227/1997-0935.2025.3.429-439</article-id><article-id custom-type="elpub" pub-id-type="custom">mgssuvest-553</article-id><article-categories><subj-group subj-group-type="heading"><subject>Research Article</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="ru"><subject>Технология и организация строительства. Экономика и управление в строительстве</subject></subj-group><subj-group subj-group-type="section-heading" xml:lang="en"><subject>Technology and organization of construction. Economics and management in construction</subject></subj-group></article-categories><title-group><article-title>Сценарии эксплуатационной стадии жизненного цикла автомобильных дорог в условиях действующего нормативного регулирования</article-title><trans-title-group xml:lang="en"><trans-title>Scenarios of the operational stage of the road life cycle under the current regulatory environment</trans-title></trans-title-group></title-group><contrib-group><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5912-1235</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Тиратурян</surname><given-names>А. Н.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Tiraturyan</surname><given-names>A. N.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Артем Николаевич Тиратурян — доктор технических наук, доцент, профессор кафедры автомобильных дорог</p><p>344000, г. Ростов-на-Дону, пл. Гагарина, д. 1</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Artem N. Tiraturyan — Doctor of Technical Sciences, Associate Professor, Professor of the Department of Automobile Roads</p><p>1 Gagarin square, Rostov-on-Don, 344000</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">tiraturjan@list.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0009-0006-2694-1337</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Воробьев</surname><given-names>А. В.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Vorobev</surname><given-names>A. V.</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Андрей Викторович Воробьев — аспирант кафедры автомобильных дорог</p><p>344000, г. Ростов-на-Дону, пл. Гагарина, д. 1</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Andrey V. Vorobev — postgraduate student of the Department of Automobile Roads</p><p>1 Gagarin square, Rostov-on-Don, 344000</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">andreyvorobyev19@mail.ru</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib><contrib contrib-type="author" corresp="yes"><contrib-id contrib-id-type="orcid">https://orcid.org/0009-0000-5687-6202</contrib-id><name-alternatives><name name-style="eastern" xml:lang="ru"><surname>Ян</surname><given-names>Ч.</given-names></name><name name-style="western" xml:lang="en"><surname>Yang</surname><given-names>Chun</given-names></name></name-alternatives><bio xml:lang="ru"><p>Чунь Ян — аспирант кафедры автомобильных дорог</p><p>344000, г. Ростов-на-Дону, пл. Гагарина, д. 1</p></bio><bio xml:lang="en"><p>Chun Yang  — postgraduate student of the Department of Automobile Roads</p><p>1 Gagarin square, Rostov-on-Don, 344000</p></bio><email xlink:type="simple">YangChun24@outlook.com</email><xref ref-type="aff" rid="aff-1"/></contrib></contrib-group><aff-alternatives id="aff-1"><aff xml:lang="ru"><institution>Донской государственный технический университет (ДГТУ)</institution><country>Россия</country></aff><aff xml:lang="en"><institution>Don State Technical University (DSTU)</institution><country>Russian Federation</country></aff></aff-alternatives><pub-date pub-type="collection"><year>2025</year></pub-date><pub-date pub-type="epub"><day>27</day><month>03</month><year>2025</year></pub-date><volume>20</volume><issue>3</issue><fpage>429</fpage><lpage>439</lpage><permissions><copyright-statement>Copyright &amp;#x00A9; Тиратурян А.Н., Воробьев А.В., Ян Ч., 2025</copyright-statement><copyright-year>2025</copyright-year><copyright-holder xml:lang="ru">Тиратурян А.Н., Воробьев А.В., Ян Ч.</copyright-holder><copyright-holder xml:lang="en">Tiraturyan A.N., Vorobev A.V., Yang C.</copyright-holder><license xml:lang="ru" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>Данная работа распространяется под лицензией Creative Commons Attribution 4.0.</license-p></license><license xml:lang="en" license-type="creative-commons-attribution" xlink:href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/" xlink:type="simple"><license-p>This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.</license-p></license></permissions><self-uri xlink:href="https://www.vestnikmgsu.ru/jour/article/view/553">https://www.vestnikmgsu.ru/jour/article/view/553</self-uri><abstract><sec><title>Введение</title><p>Введение. Одной из определяющих концепций дорожной отрасли является концепция 12/24, принятая Постановлением Правительства РФ от 30.05.2017 № 658 и регламентирующая нормативный срок службы до ремонта автомобильной дороги (а. д.) 12 лет и до капитального ремонта 24 года. При этом в пределах 12-летнего срока службы возможно выполнение работ по восстановлению слоев износа/защитных слоев, периодичность которых устанавливается отдельными нормативными актами и зависит от интенсивности движения и эксплуатационного состояния. Прогнозирование изменения основных эксплуатационных показателей а. д. с учетом влияния управляющих воздействий в виде содержания, ремонта и капитального ремонта позволит проанализировать различные варианты стратегий обеспечения их сохранности.</p></sec><sec><title>Материалы и методы</title><p>Материалы и методы. Для прогнозирования изменения основных эксплуатационных показателей а. д. применяются феноменологические модели ухудшения продольной и поперечной ровности покрытия автодороги, а также общего модуля упругости и коэффициента прочности на ее поверхности.</p></sec><sec><title>Результаты</title><p>Результаты. Модифицирована зависимость для прогнозирования изменения общего модуля упругости на поверхности дорожной одежды в течение ее срока службы, представляющая собой убывающую функцию общего модуля упругости от суммарного числа приложений расчетной нагрузки и соответственно времени эксплуатации. Модифицированы зависимости для прогнозирования изменения фактической продольной ровности и колейности путем введения дополнительного множителя, характеризующего общую потерю прочности на прогнозный год. С учетом модифицированных зависимостей построены сценарии эксплуатационной стадии жизненного цикла (ЖЦ) для модельной конструкции дорожной одежды а. д. и реальной автодороги, эксплуатирующейся в Ростовской области.</p></sec><sec><title>Выводы</title><p>Выводы. Получены модифицированные зависимости, позволяющие описывать процессы ухудшения продольной ровности покрытия и колейности с учетом снижения общего модуля упругости на поверхности дорожной одежды. Построены различные проектные сценарии эксплуатационной стадии ЖЦ а. д. для тестового и реального примера. Предложены направления совершенствования методов анализа ЖЦ автодорог.</p></sec></abstract><trans-abstract xml:lang="en"><sec><title>Introduction</title><p>Introduction. One of the defining concepts of the road sector is the concept of 12/24 adopted by the Russian Government Decree of May 30, 2017 Nо. 658, and regulating the normative service life before repair of a highway is12 years and before major repair 24 years. At the same time, within the 12-year service life, it is possible to perform works on restoration of wear layers/protective layers, the frequency of which is established by separate normative acts and depends on the traffic intensity and operational condition. Forecasting of changes in the main operational indicators of the highway taking into account the influence of control actions in the form of maintenance, repair and overhaul will make it possible to analyze various options of strategies to ensure their preservation.</p></sec><sec><title>Materials and methods</title><p>Materials and methods. Phenomenological models of deterioration of longitudinal and transverse flatness of the road surface, as well as the total modulus of elasticity and the coefficient of strength on its surface are used to predict changes in the main operational indicators of highways.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>Results. Modified the dependence for predicting the change in the total modulus of elasticity on the pavement surface during its service life, which is a decreasing function of the total modulus of elasticity from the total number of design load applications and, respectively, the service time. The dependencies for predicting the change in actual longitudinal flatness and rutting were modified by introducing an additional multiplier characterizing the total loss of strength for the predicted year. Taking into account the modified dependencies the scenarios of the operational stage of the life cycle for the model construction of road pavement of the highway and the real highway operated in the Rostov region were built.</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusions</title><p>Conclusions. Modified dependencies allowing to describe the processes of deterioration of longitudinal flatness of the pavement and rutting taking into account the reduction of the total modulus of elasticity on the surface of the pavement were obtained. Various design scenarios of the operational stage of the life cycle of a highway for a test and real example were cons-tructed. The directions of improvement of methods for analyzing the life cycle of highways are proposed.</p></sec></trans-abstract><kwd-group xml:lang="ru"><kwd>автомобильные дороги</kwd><kwd>эксплуатационная стадия жизненного цикла</kwd><kwd>уровень сохранности</kwd><kwd>управляющие воздействия</kwd><kwd>сценарии</kwd><kwd>эксплуатационные параметры</kwd><kwd>стратегии ремонтных работ</kwd></kwd-group><kwd-group xml:lang="en"><kwd>highways</kwd><kwd>operational stage of life cycle</kwd><kwd>preservation level</kwd><kwd>control actions</kwd><kwd>scenarios</kwd><kwd>operational parameters</kwd><kwd>repair strategies</kwd></kwd-group><funding-group><funding-statement xml:lang="ru">Исследование выполнено за счет гранта Российского научного фонда № 24-29-00110 (URL: https://rscf.ru/project/24-29-00110/). Авторы выражают искреннюю благодарность уважаемым рецензентам за время и силы, затраченные на рассмотрение данной статьи.</funding-statement><funding-statement xml:lang="en">The research was supported by the grant of the Russian Science Foundation Nо. 24-29-00110 (URL: https://rscf.ru/project/24-29-00110/). The author also expresses sincere gratitude to the respected reviewers for the time and effort spent on reviewing this article.</funding-statement></funding-group></article-meta></front><back><ref-list><title>References</title><ref id="cit1"><label>1</label><citation-alternatives><mixed-citation xml:lang="ru">Скворцов А.В., Сарычев Д.С. Жизненный цикл проектов автомобильных дорог в контексте информационного моделирования // САПР и ГИС автомобильных дорог. 2015. № 1 (4). С. 4–14. DOI: 10.17273/CADGIS.2015.1.1. EDN TWONWT.</mixed-citation><mixed-citation xml:lang="en">Skvortsov A.V., Sarychev D.S. Life cycle of highway projects in the context of information modeling. 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