Average prices in the Moscow housing market: analysis of dynamics and forecasts
https://doi.org/10.22227/1997-0935.2025.9.1386-1400
Abstract
Introduction. The author analyzes average price changes in primary and secondary segments of the Moscow housing market, spanning from 2010 to 2024, with a breakdown into mediocre, better-quality, and luxury apartments, and presents price projections for quarterly periods of 2025–2027 per square meter of apartment space.
Materials and methods. The study is backed by the official data available from the Federal Service of State Statistics and covering the period of 2010–2024. Winter’s exponential smoothing models were applied to make projections that encompassed linear trends and additive seasonality.
Results. In 2010–2024, the average annual price growth rate was 4.8 % for all types of apartments on the secondary Moscow market, and 6.5 % for all types of apartments on the primary Moscow market. As for “mediocre quality” (standard) apartments, the average annual price growth rate was 5.3 % for the secondary market and 7.1 % for the primary market. As for better-quality apartments, the average annual price growth rate was 4.8 % for the secondary market and 8.1 % for the primary market. As for luxury apartments, average annual price growth rates were 6.5 % for the secondary market and 6.2 % for the primary market. The author’s projections for the secondary housing market suggest a 2.5 % increase in the average price per square meter of all types of Moscow apartments as of the year-end 2025 relative to the year-end 2024. The same value will reach 5.3 % as of the year-end 2026, and 8.2 % as of the year-end 2027. For the primary market, the author suggests a 6.7 % price increase as of the year-end 2025; a 11.3 % price increase as of the year-end 2026, and a 15.9 % price increase as of the year-end 2027 relative to the same value for 2024.
Conclusions. If the same trends persist, the greatest price growth rate is anticipated for luxury housing on the secondary housing market, and the smallest price growth rate is projected for mediocre and better-quality apartments on the secondary
housing market.
Keywords
housing market,
price per square meter of apartment,
housing price projections,
econometric modeling,
Winter’s models,
housing construction,
Moscow real estate
Supporting agencies: The author expresses gratitude to anonymous reviewers for their efforts, comments and revisions.
About the Author
E. Yu. Churilova
Financial University under the Government of the Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Russian Federation
Elvira Yu. Churilova — Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor, Associate Professor of the Department of Business Analytics
49/2 Leningradsky prospekt, Moscow, 125167
RSCI AuthorID: 475729
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Review
For citations:
Churilova E.Yu. Average prices in the Moscow housing market: analysis of dynamics and forecasts. Vestnik MGSU. 2025;20(9):1386-1400. (In Russ.) https://doi.org/10.22227/1997-0935.2025.9.1386-1400
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