An integrated risk assessment approach for parking space development projects in a megacity

Introduction. High rates of motorization in megacities, combined with a persistent shortage of parking spaces, necessitate the implementation of large-scale parking infrastructure projects. Such projects entail significant regulatory, investment, and urban planning risks, which require improved assessment approaches. Since these risks are interrelated and may have a cumulative effect on project outcomes, an integrated risk assessment approach is needed. The objective of this study is to develop an approach to the integrated risk assessment of parking space development projects in megacities.

Materials and methods. The study draws on international and Russian practical experience, regulatory and technical documentation, as well as scientific literature. The methods applied include systematization, analysis, decomposition, comparative analysis, target analysis, and matrix analysis. A risk classification pattern was developed, life-cycle stages and target parameters were identified, and a risk matrix was constructed.

Results. The study resulted in the development of a four-stage integrated approach for the quantitative assessment of risks associated with parking space development projects in megacities. The proposed approach includes standardization and strategic weighting of initial expert assessments of the impact of risks using project target parameters; calculation of an integrated risk indicator based on the probability of risk occurrence, strategically weighted impact and manageability; aggregation of risks by life-cycle stages, yielding summary indicators for each stage and an overall project risk indicator; and grouping of risks by project target parameters, with integrated risk indicators calculated for each parameter. A distinctive feature of the proposed approach is the simultaneous consideration of two complementary dimensions of risk aggregation — by life-cycle stages and by project target parameters — which makes it possible to distinguish between tactical and strategic levels of management.

Conclusions. The developed approach enables quantitative risk assessment, enabling risk aggregation by lifecycle stages and target parameters. Unlike discrete analysis of individual risks, this approach generates a system of indicators for tactical resource allocation and strategic prioritization. The results can be used to substantiate management decisions and implemented in the practice of managing parking space development projects in megacities.

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