Experimental studies on the validity of the coldest five-day period temperature in the Belgorod Region

Introduction. The motivation for this study was the change in the calculated temperature of the coldest five-day period in the Belgorod Region according to the latest reference data, which runs counter to the global trend of climate warming. A hypothesis was put forward about the possible groundlessness of the obtained reference data and an experimental verification and analysis of the obtained results were carried out. Data on the change in climatic parameters of the heating season in the Belgorod region are presented. Shortcomings in the existing methodology for calculating the provision of the coldest five-day periods were identified and ways to solve this problem were proposed.

Materials and methods. To calculate the main climate parameters of the cold period of the year, archives of data from existing meteorological stations were used. The Pandas library for data processing and analysis was used to process the data; the Matplotlib library was used for data visualization; the SciPy library was used to solve the mathematical problems presented in the work.

Results. The detailed results of the study of changes in the climatic parameters of the Belgorod region are presented. Detailed descriptive statistics are shown for each of the meteorological stations with a sufficient depth of data archive for research. The change in average annual temperatures of meteorological stations during the entire period of research is presented. Changes in the main calculated parameters of heating periods are calculated and visualized. Calculations are made to establish the temperatures of the coldest five-day period at each meteorological station in various combinations.

Conclusions. It was revealed that climate changes in the Belgorod region, according to data from all meteorological stations in the region, correspond to global climate changes. The temperature of the coldest five-day period with a provision of 0.92 specified in the latest edition of construction climatology is excessive and does not reach –24 °C under any of the justified combinations. The obtained temperatures of the coldest five-day periods of meteorological stations are lower than the established value by 1–2 °C. It is proposed to use several regional meteorological stations to calculate the coldest five-day periods. These proposals will contribute to a justified reduction in the cost of heating systems.

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